The Russian Revolution
Yet another one!
I apologize for my absence. Two things happened at once: I started a new job, an my Dad died right after that, which kept me away from writing here for a while. But I’m back. If interested, I wrote about my Dad and me, which will help you understand Iran better—and, if interested, know me better.
Saying Goodbye to My Father from Half a World Away via The Bulwark
My Dad was a revolutionary and a Marxist, both of which are perfect transitions to Russia, the country which might hold the record for revolutions in the Twentieth Century, at least in Europe.
Vladimir Putin is at the peak of his popularity, if you believe polls. The most recent Levada Center poll from July has his approval numbers in the 80s. I think we can settle on three reasons for these numbers: The Russians still love imperialism; More people are scared of saying that they don’t support Putin because of the growing crackdowns on dissent; The Russian people are mostly yet to pay a price for the war.
The last two factors will be a problem for Putin. The more he cracks down on normal Russians, the more people will turn against him. On the other hand, the Russian economy will just begin to show signs of problem in the coming couple of months. First, the Russian central bank has managed to stabilize the ruble because its chairwoman might be the best central bank governor in the world. She’s known to be an extraordinarily brilliant economist. But she’s not a magician. Eventually, even she couldn’t forestall the coming disaster longer. Second, Russia has mitigated the sanctions mostly because of the rising price of fossil fuels and by relying on their reserves of goods they had imported before the sanctions. But fuel prices will eventually go down—they already might be going down, but they might go back up again—and the Europeans will find an alternative energy source. I’m not talking about months here. I’m talking about a few years.
Putin needs to end this war for survival as soon as possible, but here he faces two problems: He can’t afford to lose the war, both because that might jeopardize his hold onto power, and because he actually seems to believe that he will die soon and needs to finalize his legacy. Herein lies the paradox: He can’t afford to lose the war, but he cannot win the war either. This is why maintaining U.S. support is critical. And the longer the war goes on, the worse the problem gets for him.
The Russian military has been on the defensive and been bleeding terribly—literally and metaphorically. Yet, the Russian regime keeps increasing the political objectives of the war. Simply put, as the Russian capabilities decrease, its objectives increase. Here we can learn from history. This is what Kaiser Wilhelm did during World War I. His military capabilities were shrinking, and the German people knew about it and were forced to bear additional burdens so war resources could keep coming. So the kaiser presented the troubles caused by the war as an investment: The more you sacrifice, dear German people, the more you will get in the end. In other words, to keep the Germans happy, he kept promising more. It was a domestic political gamble. And it worked for a few years, but, eventually, the German people revolted, and the German Revolution of 1918 ended his rule.