Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Is Under Siege
The crown jewel of U.S.-Soviet cooperation and history's only successful nuclear arms control agreement might collapse soon.
There are two simultaneous threats to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT): The negotiations in Vienna concerning Iran’s nuclear weapons program and Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine.
Regarding the former, I am unsure what I am rooting for, the collapse of the talks or a written agreement. The fog of war in Ukraine is also creating a fog around the negotiations and the results of their outcome, be it a failure or a deal. It is entirely clear to me that the negotiations could slow down Iran’s march toward a nuclear agreement but will fail in killing the program altogether. According to reports, the written text that the sides were ready to sign had increased Iran’s enrichment rights from 3.67 percent under the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) to 5 percent.1 On the other hand, I am sure that the current U.S. administration, like every single one before it, will not take military action to take out Iran’s nuclear weapons program, itself a handicap in negotiations, and according to reports Israel has also missed its window and its capabilities prevent it from dismantling Iran’s program without the use of nuclear weapons, which is itself an undesirable outcome.
Under these assumptions, hoping for a diplomatic resolution that would slow down the program, hoping for a future administration to take military action before Iran has first- or second-strike capabilities, is the best outcome we could hope for. But also, if the past is any guide to the future, this won’t happen, and the likeliest scenario is that Iran will have second-strike capabilities soon.
A nuclear Iran will trigger the discussions of nuclear Saudi Arabia, UAE, and even Egypt. And, despite the warming of relations, all of these outcomes are still unacceptable to Israel which is uncomfortable with the sale of F-35s to UAE, let alone a nuclear Saudi Arabia!
The byproduct of an Iranian nuke, Arab nuclear weapons programs, will be the cherry on top for Iran. The threatening Arab-Israeli partnership will weaken—if not fall apart—when Israel begins to lobby against Arab nuclear weapons programs.